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One Weakness That Will Keep Every NFL Playoff Team Out of Super Bowl LIX
Posted: 2025-1-11

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick MahomesJoe Sargent/Getty Images

The NFL playoffs are here. Where once 32 teams aspired to journey to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX—only 14 teams remain alive in the quest for the Lombardi Trophy.
Those teams are the NFL’s best—teams replete with talent on both sides of the ball. The top two candidates to win MVP honors in Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. The league’s leading rusher in Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles. Arguably the NFL’s best defensive player in Pittsburgh Steelers edge-rusher T.J. Watt.
Teams don’t advance to the playoffs without multiple strengths. The top-ranked offense of the Ravens. The top-ranked defense of the Eagles. From here out, every game is a donnybrook. A brouhaha.
Now, the reality is that not all these teams have a realistic shot at making a Super Bowl run (Sorry Denver. And Houston. And Los Angeles—both of them). But even the teams that do (including No. 1 seeds Kansas City and Detroit) have a weakness—an Achilles’ heel that could be their undoing in a tournament where there’s little margin for error.
Here they are—from the wildest of wild cards to the two-time defending champs.
Denver Broncos: Lack of Run Game
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Javonte Williams

Javonte WilliamsCooper Neill/Getty Images

The Denver Broncos have exceeded expectations this season. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has emerged as a viable NFL starter. The Denver defense is seventh in yards allowed and third in points allowed.
But the rushing attack has been an issue all season. For the year, the Broncos rank in the middle of the league, at 112.2 yards per game on the ground. But Denver’s 4.1 yards per carry ranks outside the top 20. Denver’s leading rusher (running back Javonte Williams) averaged just 3.7 yards per tote. And among players with over 75 carries this year, the Bronco with the highest success rate this season was Nix.
Simply put, the Broncos don’t have the offensive firepower to match scores with the likes of the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
Denver’s best chance at pulling some playoff upsets is controlling the game’s tempo. To do that, Denver needs to be able to run the ball effectively, which it hasn’t been able to do.
Green Bay Packers: Inconsistent Passing Game
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Jordan Love

Jordan LoveJohn Fisher/Getty Images

The Green Bay Packers won 11 games in 2024, but the team’s chances of a deep run in the NFC playoffs don’t look great—the Pack lost twice to both the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions and fell to the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 1 in Brazil.
The reason the Packers seemingly can’t get over the hump against the conference’s best may well be the passing game. For the season, Green Bay’s passing attack has been fine—Green Bay’s 223.9 passing yards per game ranks 12th in the NFL.
But Jordan Love is just 16th among quarterbacks in passing yards per game. The fourth-year veteran has hit 200 passing yards and two touchdowns just once in the past month. Love hasn’t had a three-score game since October.
It’s not just Love, either. With Christian Watson done for the year with a torn ACL, Green Bay’s top three wideouts are Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. All three rank in the top 12 in the NFL in drop percentage, per Pro Football Reference.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Entire Offense
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Russell Wilson

Russell WilsonShelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This could be viewed as something of an over-generalization. But as the Steelers head into playoffs riding a four-game losing streak that includes three double-digit losses, the entire offense has become a serious question mark.
Over his last five starts, quarterback Russell Wilson has averaged just over 170 passing yards and 1.2 touchdown passes per game. Since his return from injury, wide receiver George Pickens and Wilson clearly aren’t on the same page. Head coach Mike Tomlin went so far as to tell reporters that we could see more of Justin Fields against a Ravens team that beat the Steelers by three scores not that long ago.
“I’m certainly open to utilizing Justin; he has an awesome skill set,” Tomlin said. “He experienced an injury a couple of weeks back that slowed him down. But, certainly, in an effort to win this game I am open to any combination or combinations of the division of labor in an effort to do so, and so I’m certainly open to that as we develop plans this week.”
Running back Najee Harris hasn’t topped 75 rushing yards in a game since an October 28 win over the New York Giants. A young Steelers offensive line has taken a substantial step backward over the past month.
Given how Pittsburgh has looked, the Steelers aren’t making it out of Wild Card Weekend.
Washington Commanders: Run Defense
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Bobby Wagner

Bobby WagnerCooper Neill/Getty Images

The NFC playoff bracket is filled with big names in the backfield. Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams. Jahmyr Gibbs of the Detroit Lions. NFL rushing king Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles.
As Scott Smith wrote for the Buccaneers’ website, even rookie Bucky Irving has emerged as a force for Tampa in his first professional season.
“Irving’s instinctive moves make him a pain to bring down despite his size, as he forced a missed tackle on 35.8 percent of his runs, the highest mark for any player with at least 150 carries this season,” Smith said. “Just two weeks ago during a 190-yard performance in a win over Carolina, Irving gained 111 yards after contact. He is also a natural pass-catcher and a weapon to go the distance on outlet and swing passes.”
That presents a real problem for the Commanders. Washington’s defense has struggled all season against the run, allowing 137.5 yards per game. No team in the postseason has surrendered more.
It will be next to impossible for the Commanders to make a deep postseason run if they can’t control the tempo of games. And when opponents are running the ball at will, that’s not an easy thing to do.
Los Angeles Chargers: Run Game
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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. DobbinsIan Maule/Getty Images

To be fair, the return of running back J.K. Dobbins is a desperately needed boost to the Chargers run game. Dobbins set a career high in rushing yards this season with 905 and averaged 4.6 yards per carry for the campaign.
But for the season, the Chargers averaged just over 110 yards per game and ranked in the bottom half of the league. Dig deeper into the stats, and things don’t become markedly better.
Dobbins unsurprisingly led the team in yards per rush before contact, but he ranked outside the top 30 and below the league average. Gus Edwards essentially is what he’s always been—a plodder who averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. Dobbins was impressive after contact and fifth in the league with 24 broken tackles, but he had to work for every yard.
And in those games where the running game couldn’t get going, the Bolts were a much different offensive team. Jim Harbaugh is a run-first coach. And while Ladd McConkey was excellent as a rookie, the Chargers don’t have the passing-game talent to morph into a pass-wacky, 50-pass offense.
That the Chargers brought in what’s left of Ezekiel Elliott would appear to show that even they know the run game could be an issue. Because when the ground game has sputtered and Justin Herbert has had to carry the offense—well, that’s just not how these Chargers are built to win games.
Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold
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Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We could easily have listed Minnesota’s 28th-ranked pass defense here. And rest assured, there will be playoff teams undone by their secondaries in 2024. Of the bottom 10 pass defenses in the NFL this year, six belong to teams that made the postseason this year.
Chew on that stat for a second.

But in Minnesota’s blowout loss to the Detroit Lions in the season finale, the Lions may have provided a recipe for bouncing the Vikings.
Get in Sam Darnold’s grill.

With the Lions blitzing Darnold almost constantly, Darnold had an abysmal game against Detroit—just 18 completions in 41 attempts for 166 yards and a dismal rating of 55.5.
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell told reporters that he’s confident the team can correct what went wrong in Motown.
“Early on in the game, it seemed the misses were a little high, so we’ve got to take a look at it, fundamentals, techniques, and take a look at the plays that things happened on,” O’Connell said. “Having the Monday night game, we’ll be able to do – we’ll be able to have a real full kind of debrief and understanding of what took place because clearly it starts with me.”
It may have just been one off night. But it’s not like Darnold has always been the 2024 iteration. In fact, during much of his career he was anything but.
And if the Lions showed how to expose “bad” Darnold, Minnesota’s 14-win season could end with a one-and-done postseason trip.
Houston Texans: Offensive Line
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Laremy Tunsil

Laremy TunsilCooper Neill/Getty Images

Many have pointed to injuries at wide receiver as the reason the Houston Texans are limping into the postseason losers of two of three—both to teams in the AFC playoff bracket.
But as Ben Rolfe wrote for Pro Football Network, Houston’s biggest issue is the second-worst offensive line in the entire NFL.
“C.J. Stroud’s propensity to hold the ball for a long time hasn’t helped, but an 11.3% sack rate in the face of the blitz (28th) is not simply down to him not getting the ball out fast enough,” he wrote. “Houston also allows a 35.6% pressure rate (28th) against four or fewer pass rushers. This line has also struggled with the run game. They rank 31st in RBYBC/rush (0.61) and 30th in RBWR (Run Block Win Rate). That makes some of Joe Mixon’s performances this season even more impressive than they first looked.”
The Texans have scored more than 20 points just once since the bye—in the season finale against the lowly Titans. An inability to control the line of scrimmage just puts that much more pressure on Stroud, Mixon and that beat-up wideout corps.
And makes the Texans ripe for a Wild Card Round loss.
Los Angeles Rams: Inconsistent Defense
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Jared Verse

Jared VerseKathryn Riley/Getty Images

The Rams won the NFC West this year, and the team did so with a defense that was rebuilt on the fly. With Aaron Donald gone, a number of young players were tasked with stepping into prominent roles—including numerous rookies.
However, head coach Sean McVay told reporters that the likes of edge-rusher Jared Verse and safety Kamren Kinchens haven’t played like this was their first season in the pros.
“They are an embodiment of this team,” McVay said. “This is a mature group. When you look at the competitive stamina that’s been required to be in the positions that this group has put itself in and the opportunities they’ve earned … it takes resilience, a physical toughness. These guys are grown men, and that’s what we’re looking for. That’s why we’re able to play a style of football and really win a lot of the games the way we have, especially with the defense being such a critical factor in a lot of these games.”
If the Rams defense becomes a critical factor in the postseason, L.A. is in trouble. Sure, the Rams have had their moments. But as a whole, Los Angeles was 26th in yards allowed and a middling 17th in scoring defense.
Against juggernaut offenses like the Eagles and Lions, the Rams could be in real trouble.
Baltimore Ravens: A Leaky Secondary
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Marlon Humphrey

Marlon HumphreyAlex Slitz/Getty Images

Is there an echo in here?

Back in November, when the Ravens had the NFL’s worst pass defense, veteran cornerback Marlon Humphrey told reporters that the team had to get that fixed to make a deep playoff run.
“The frustration really comes from the lack of just doing your job,” Humphrey said. “It’d be different if we didn’t have the guys. It’d be different if we were confused. It’s just simple. We’re just not playing how we’re practicing. We’ve got to get it fixed.”
To at least some extent, the Ravens have done that. The Baltimore pass defense has improved markedly since the team made a midseason switch and moved Kyle Hamilton from the slot to more of a traditional safety role.
Over the first 10 weeks of the season, the Ravens had one of the worst EPA per pass in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. Since Week 11, no team has a better rating in that category.
However, the Ravens are still 31st in the league against the pass—the worst ranking of any team in the postseason. That can’t be ignored, especially with quarterbacks like Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes looming on the horizon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bad Pass Defense
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Antoine Winfield

Antoine Winfield Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t the only team with issues in the secondary. In fact, there isn’t a more common weakness among playoff teams this season than pass defense.
It has the potential to make for some interesting games as we move through the postseason.

The Buccaneers were 29th in the NFL against the pass this year, allowing 243.9 yards per game. Tampa’s 96.6 passer rating against is the highest of any team in the postseason.
It’s a deficiency largely born of attrition on the back end. Safeties Christian Izien, Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield Jr. were all out of action down the stretch. So was No. 1 cornerback Jamel Dean, which leaves Tampa precariously thin at that position.
It’s not a matter of the Buccaneers leaving quarterbacks with all kinds of time to throw the ball, either—Tampa’s 255 QB pressures led the NFC. But the team’s banged-up secondary just hasn’t held up in coverage.
When the Bucs beat the Washington Commanders in their regular-season meeting, they held rookie Jayden Daniels to just 184 passing yards.
But a lot has changed between now and then.
Buffalo Bills: Lack of Elite Wide Receiver Talent
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Keon Coleman

Keon ColemanTodd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Teams seeded as highly as the Buffalo Bills usually don’t have a glaring weakness. If they did, they wouldn’t be the No. 2 seed. They wouldn’t rule the NFC East with an iron hand Joffrey Baratheon would envy (he was mean). They wouldn’t be the only team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs this year.
Denver’s Week 18 win doesn’t count, because I said so.

But no NFL team is perfect, and neither are the Bills.

And if there’s one aspect of the team that could be their undoing, it’s the wide receivers.

Mind you, Buffalo doesn’t have the weakest assemblage of wideout talent in the league by any stretch. Keon Coleman showed flashes during his rookie season. Khalil Shakir saw 100 targets for the first time and set career highs across the board. Players like Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins had their moments this year. Buffalo was ninth in the league in passing.
But as Ian Hartitz of a Fantasy Life wrote, the advanced stats were not kind to Buffalo’s receivers this year.

“The Bills rank fourth in net pass yards per attempt, yet are a bottom-10 offense in average separation score per dropback (Fantasy Points),” he wrote. “Mack Hollins has the WR room’s highest open score at ESPN (63, 32nd), while each of Khalil Shakir (51, 72nd), Keon Coleman (46, 83rd), and Amari Cooper (43, 88th) don’t look so hot either. Overall, Buffalo has ESPN’s sixth-worst average open score among all qualified WRs and TEs.”
The Bills will all but certainly roll Denver in the Wild Card Round. But the deeper the Bills get into the playoffs, the more every team’s flaws become exposed.
And even relatively minor ones can sink a team.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts
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Jalen Hurts

Jalen HurtsScott Taetsch/Getty Images

This one likely raised some eyebrows. But the Eagles just don’t have many weaknesses. The defense is as good as any in the league, and Philly improved exponentially against the pass relative to a year ago. The team has lots of skill-position talent on offense. The Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
That leaves quarterback Jalen Hurts.

This isn’t so much about the concussion that sidelined Hurts the past couple of weeks. Yes, re-injury is always a possibility with a head injury. But Hurts is practicing, and it would be a major upset if Hurts isn’t out there in the Wild Card Round against the Green Bay Packers.
But Hurts could be the reason the Eagles get eliminated just as easily as he could be the force that guides them into Super Bowl LIX.
Hurts hasn’t exactly shined in his five previous career playoff starts—he has averaged 217 yards and a touchdown per game with nine sacks allowed.
That last part could be the real rub. Hurts’ mobility leads him to extend plays—to look for the home run. It works to Philadelphia’s benefit quite a bit, but Hurts has been dropped 38 times this season—fifth-most among playoff quarterbacks.
Sacks are drive-killers—and against the NFC’s best, one killed drive could be all she wrote.

Hurts is also winless (0-2) in the Wild Card Round. Just saying.
Kansas City Chiefs: Dink-and-Dunk Offense
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Kareem Hunt

Kareem HuntPerry Knotts/Getty Images

There isn’t much that the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t do at a high level this season—this is a team that essentially lost just one game.
We aren’t counting Week 18, because the Chiefs certainly didn’t.

But this Chiefs team was different from years past. The chunk plays that the Chiefs generated with regularity in past seasons just weren’t there. This was a much more methodical Kansas City team.
A Kansas City backfield led by Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco managed just 105.3 yards per game—22nd in the league. The Chiefs gained just four yards per carry—fourth-fewest in the league.
The Chiefs didn’t exactly light it up through the air, either. Kansas City’s 222.4 yards per game ranked in the middle of the league. Kansas City’s 5.9 passing yards per play (per Next Gen Stats) ranked outside the top 20.
This may well all be nitpicking. The Chiefs have already beaten Baltimore and gave the Bills all they could handle. The playoffs run through Kansas City this season. And the Chiefs are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. They won the game last year with a similar offense.
But if a playoff game goes full-on shootout or the Chiefs (gasp!) fall behind, their inability to generate big plays could be their undoing.
Detroit Lions: Poor Pass Defense
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Terrion Arnold

Terrion ArnoldTodd Rosenberg/Getty Images

As Sterling Xie wrote for Pro Football Network, in last week’s massive win over the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn may have happened on a way to compensate for the injuries that have decimated his defense.
Go all-out at the quarterback.

“While the Lions likely aren’t a top-five defense entering the playoffs in their current state, it’s undeniable how well this team is coached,” he said. “Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn authored a masterpiece game plan, selling out to harass Sam Darnold. Detroit played Cover 0 on a season-high 17.7% of opponent dropbacks, more than triple their season average of 5.1%. The result? A season-high 75.6% pass defense success rate, a remarkable feat given the Lions’ health and quality of their opponent. This unit is still a concern with all the injuries, particularly if (Terrion) Arnold is out. Linebacker Alex Anzalone was a difference-maker in his return to the lineup, though, and it’s still possible for the likes of Carlton Davis and Aidan Hutchinson to return with a deep run.”
The Lions have been stout against the run all season—fifth in the league at just 98.4 yards per game. But if Glenn’s aggressive philosophy backfires, a secondary that surrendered the third-most passing yards per game this year could be in trouble.

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